A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
